Remote work remains flat despite RTO mandates
Remote work levels have plateaued across the United States despite high-profile return-to-office mandates from major corporations.
Static numbers in a shifting environment
Major financial and technology firms have publicly pushed for a return to physical offices, but the data shows a different picture. According to a monthly survey led by Stanford economist Nicholas Bloom, the share of paid full-time work days performed from home averaged 26% in May. This figure is virtually unchanged from 27% two years ago and down only slightly from 30% in 2022. Before the pandemic, that share hovered around 7%.
Additional data supports this trend. Kastle Systems, which monitors office access via keycard swipes, reports occupancy across 10 major cities is only marginally higher than a year ago. Mobile location data from Placer.ai indicates office visits in May were still about 32% below 2019 levels, an improvement of just three percentage points over the past year. The disparity reflects a straightforward reality: the large firms dominating headlines represent only a small fraction of a 163-million-strong workforce.
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Nearly two-thirds of employees remain fully on-site, around one in 10 are entirely remote, and most of the remainder operate in hybrid arrangements. While some employees will return to desks—nudged by promotion structures that reward visibility—the underlying trend has barely shifted over the past two years.
Leadership and the evolution of work
Research suggests that the generational makeup of company leadership plays a significant role in remote work adoption. Employees at companies led by younger chief executives tend to spend more time working remotely than those under older leadership. Bloom notes that CEOs who were 40 or under during the pandemic are far more likely to have hybrid policies in place, as older leaders are “just less used to” managing distributed teams.
High-growth startups are also developing the management practices needed to sustain hybrid work. Prithwiraj Choudhury, an economist at the London School of Economics, observes that these companies bring their operating models with them as they scale. This dynamic may settle the debate less by corporate memos than by who is left in the room to write them. As older leaders step down, they are replaced by younger counterparts more comfortable managing distributed teams.
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While the office debate remains a prominent topic, the structural changes required to support hybrid work are slowly taking hold in newer, faster-growing companies. This shift suggests that the future of work will likely be defined by management practices rather than executive mandates.
The trade-offs of the hybrid model
Access to remote work has helped more mothers remain in the workforce, and US Labor Department data shows a notable increase in employment among people with disabilities since 2020. However, the drawbacks are less immediately visible. In a study published this month in the journal Science, University of Virginia economist Emma Harrington and co-authors conclude that remote work has contributed to higher levels of loneliness and mental strain among Americans.
Early evidence also indicates the arrangement may be affecting the career trajectories of recent graduates, who typically learn by working alongside more experienced colleagues. The time saved on commuting is obvious, but the erosion of skills is not. Gaps can form gradually, only becoming apparent when those capabilities are required. Harrington notes that people are “not building the skills that you would have in person,” and that this “kind of slow burn can make people less productive in the long run.”
